Friday, April 05, 2002

Early Thoughts

I predict this is the year that the national league shifts more pronouncely towards the younger pitchers. Two years ago we witnessed a shift towards stolen bases. That season the winning stolen base team had little more than half as many steals as the winning home run team had homers. Men who stole 30 bases were worth the equivalent of someone hitting 60 in the home run catagory. I don't think that valuation has ever been reflected in our draft. Someone who can steal 40-50 is highly valued, but someone who steals 15-25 isn't.

This year we when reanalyze the draft, we'll find that too much money went towards veteran starting pitching. The emergence of pitchers like Morris, Oswalt, Vasquez, and Penny has shifted where teams ought to spend their money. This years draft won't show the whole impact because all of the named pitchers were held over. Still, there's value in the free agent pool among some young pichers. The question will be which ones.

I already regret not spending enough on hitting. The free agent list has only a hand full of full time players left, names like Ordonez that promise rotiessere wreckage (anyone other than Gene believe his .300 batting average is for real?).

Thursday, April 04, 2002

Team off to a slow start

Mo Vaughn was a disastrous pick. Why I spent $27 for him, I'll never figure out.